TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Gea -2.5 (game handicap) at 1.53 in Z. Zhang vs A. Gea (Beijing on 2026-09-30). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Zhang | A. Gea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.5% | 78.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
14.9% | 85.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.4% | 65.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
23.6% | 76.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
24.1% | 75.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 28, 2026.
A. Gea leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 30, 2026 | Beijing | hard | A. Gea | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 1 - 2 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | Y. Zhou | 0 - 2 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| W | K. Uchida | 2 - 0 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | X. Lan | 1 - 2 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 0 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
All Sept. 30, 2026 results & picks →