TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Z. Bergs vs A. Gea (Hamburg on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with Z. Bergs favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Bergs | A. Gea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.3% | 45.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.3% | 49.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.0% | 38.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 28, 2026 |
| W | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Wong | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used