TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Paul vs T. M. Etcheverry (Hamburg on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | T. M. Etcheverry |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.6% | 58.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.6% | 66.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.8% | 65.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.7% | 63.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.6% | 36.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
| T. M. Etcheverry | clay | 1796 | 187–98 | 285 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
T. Paul leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| April 3, 2026 | Houston | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| March 24, 2026 | Miami | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | I. Buse | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J. Rodionov | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used