TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Gaston vs K. Khachanov (Hamburg on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with K. Khachanov favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Gaston | K. Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.1% | 63.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.9% | 65.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.8% | 64.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.1% | 78.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Gaston | hard | 1716 | 113–88 | 201 |
| K. Khachanov | hard | 1781 | 120–84 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
K. Khachanov leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | K. Khachanov | 2 - 1 |
| L | D. Chan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Harris | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Damm | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used