TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Y. Yuan vs R. Montgomery (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-06) — the market is efficient, with R. Montgomery favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Yuan | R. Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.6% | 74.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
13.0% | 87.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
19.3% | 80.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
44.1% | 55.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Yuan | hard | 1620 | 80–79 | 159 |
| R. Montgomery | hard | 1608 | 70–47 | 117 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
R. Montgomery leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 6, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | R. Montgomery | 2 - 1 |
| W | A. Smith | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Falei | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Vandromme | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | K. Siniakova | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | E. Kalieva | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Dolehide | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | Walk Over | June 14, 2026 |
All June 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used