TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in V. Mboko vs L. Fernandez (Strasbourg on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with V. Mboko favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | V. Mboko | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.1% | 51.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.7% | 41.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Mboko | hard | 2038 | 98–34 | 132 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1804 | 119–82 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 24, 2026.
V. Mboko leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | V. Mboko | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 1, 2025 | Hong Kong | hard | V. Mboko | 2 - 1 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 1 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 1 - 2 | May 30, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 2 - 1 | May 28, 2026 |
| W | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | May 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Market is pricing Mboko as a strong favorite based on general reputation, but Clay Elo (1641 vs 1644) reveals the players are statistically even, creating significant value on Fernandez at 2.30 odds.