TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Cristian vs D. Kasatkina (Strasbourg on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Cristian | D. Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.1% | 52.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.4% | 59.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Cristian | hard | 1839 | 72–67 | 139 |
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
D. Kasatkina leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | J. Cristian | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 14, 2026 | WTA Adelaide | hard | J. Cristian | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 26, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 0 |
| April 5, 2024 | WTA Charleston | clay | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 22, 2022 | Doha | hard | D. Kasatkina | 0 - 1 |
| L | I. Jovic | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Boulter | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 0 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| L | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 1 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | V. Mboko | 2 - 1 | May 22, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used