TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Bouzkova vs A. Li (Strasbourg on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with M. Bouzkova favoured at 1.90.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Bouzkova | A. Li |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.2% | 20.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.3% | 46.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.2% | 35.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bouzkova | hard | 1747 | 128–86 | 214 |
| A. Li | hard | 1725 | 116–89 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
M. Bouzkova leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | A. Li | 2 - 0 |
| July 24, 2025 | Livesport Prague Open | clay | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 1 |
| June 29, 2022 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Y. Lee | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used