TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Under 21.5 games at 2.10 in T. Paul vs D. Vallejo (Shanghai on 2026-10-10). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | D. Vallejo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.6% | 29.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.2% | 28.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
80.6% | 19.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1944 | 169–88 | 257 |
| D. Vallejo | hard | 1653 | 47–38 | 85 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 6, 2026.
T. Paul leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 10, 2026 | Shanghai | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 18, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| April 2, 2026 | Houston | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | Q. Halys | 2 - 0 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Rune | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 0 - 2 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | L. Tien | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Sonego | 1 - 2 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 1 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | L. Sonego | 1 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
All Oct. 10, 2026 results & picks →