TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Paul vs A. Davidovich Fokina (London on 2026-06-19) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.4% | 33.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.5% | 52.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.2% | 52.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
T. Paul leads 6–0 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 19, 2026 | London | grass | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 23, 2026 | Australian Open | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 19, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | T. Paul | 3 - 0 |
| Sept. 1, 2023 | ATP US Open | hard | T. Paul | 3 - 1 |
| March 26, 2023 | ATP Miami | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used