TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Fery vs F. Cerundolo (London on 2026-06-19) — the market is efficient, with F. Cerundolo favoured at 1.48.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Fery | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.7% | 34.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.5% | 52.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.6% | 43.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.1% | 63.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fery | hard | 1722 | 118–49 | 167 |
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
F. Cerundolo leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 19, 2026 | London | grass | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Virtanen | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 19, 2026 results & picks →
The models identify a substantial 13.9% edge for Fery, driven largely by the ELO model which favors him at 65.7% on grass. While the market prices Cerundolo as a 1.48 favorite based on general ranking, it fails to account for the surface dynamic; Cerundolo's game is heavily clay-biased, whereas Fery, a British wildcard, is comfortable on grass and backed by a strong recent win over Mannarino. With the consensus model viewing this as a 50/50 matchup, the 2.62 odds offer exceptional value on the home underdog.