TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs B. Nakashima (London on 2026-06-19) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | B. Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.5% | 32.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.4% | 34.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.5% | 42.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.4% | 30.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.9% | 32.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
B. Nakashima leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | Washington | hard | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| June 19, 2026 | London | grass | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| July 25, 2025 | Washington | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 19, 2021 | Antwerp | hard | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
All June 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used