TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Maria vs L. Miyazaki (London on 2026-06-06) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Maria | L. Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
86.6% | 13.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.6% | 22.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.2% | 26.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
| L. Miyazaki | hard | 1504 | 143–96 | 239 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
T. Maria leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 7, 2026 | London | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 1 |
| July 9, 2025 | Newport | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 3, 2022 | W100 Shrewsbury | hard | L. Miyazaki | 0 - 1 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | May 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Saito | 1 - 2 | May 19, 2026 |
| L | Mushika Mio | 1 - 2 | May 14, 2026 |
All June 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used