TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Watson vs B. Haddad Maia (London on 2026-06-06) — the market is efficient, with B. Haddad Maia favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Watson | B. Haddad Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.4% | 69.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.6% | 70.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.0% | 70.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.3% | 57.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Watson | hard | 1586 | 117–80 | 197 |
| B. Haddad Maia | hard | 1575 | 109–86 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
H. Watson leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 7, 2026 | London | grass | H. Watson | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Blinkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Pareja | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Rakhimova | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Vickery | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | May 16, 2026 |
All June 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used