TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Maria (moneyline) in T. Maria vs J. Ostapenko (Eastbourne on 2026-06-26).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Maria | J. Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.3% | 45.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
30.3% | 69.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.2% | 50.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Maria | grass | 1864 | 52–24 | 76 |
| J. Ostapenko | grass | 1797 | 35–14 | 49 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 12, 2026.
T. Maria leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2, 2026 | US Open | hard | T. Maria | 2 - 1 |
| June 26, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | T. Maria | 1 - 0 |
| July 3, 2022 | Wimbledon | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Tubello | 0 - 2 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | L. Giovannini | 2 - 1 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | B. Andreescu | 1 - 2 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Ferro | 2 - 1 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | V. Strakhova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 0 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Kartal | 2 - 0 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 0 - 2 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
All June 26, 2026 results & picks →