TennisEdge's AI bot is backing P. Marcinko (moneyline) in P. Marcinko vs M. Keys (Eastbourne on 2026-06-26).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Marcinko | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
23.0% | 77.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.4% | 63.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.6% | 64.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
20.5% | 79.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Marcinko | grass | 1580 | 6–7 | 13 |
| M. Keys | grass | 1905 | 33–11 | 44 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 30, 2026.
M. Keys leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 26, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | M. Keys | 1 - 0 |
| L | K. Birrell | 2 - 1 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Parks | 2 - 1 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Waltert | 2 - 1 | Aug. 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
All June 26, 2026 results & picks →