TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Fearnley (moneyline) at 2.18 in T. M. Etcheverry vs J. Fearnley (US Open on 2026-09-02). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. M. Etcheverry | J. Fearnley |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.9% | 48.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.0% | 61.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.8% | 53.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.0% | 47.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. M. Etcheverry | hard | 1721 | 54–67 | 121 |
| J. Fearnley | hard | 1732 | 87–48 | 135 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 10, 2026.
T. M. Etcheverry leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2, 2026 | US Open | hard | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | Walk Over | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| W | M. Dahlin | 2 - 1 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Rublev | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Shevchenko | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Nagel | 2 - 0 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 0 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Sonego | 1 - 2 | Oct. 25, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 1 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
All Sept. 2, 2026 results & picks →