TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Droguet (moneyline) at 2.30 in T. Droguet vs M. Berrettini (Cincinnati on 2026-08-14). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Droguet | M. Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.3% | 36.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.6% | 63.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Droguet | hard | 1796 | 104–66 | 170 |
| M. Berrettini | hard | 1846 | 78–59 | 137 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 2, 2026.
M. Berrettini leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 14, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Berrettini | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Neumayer | 2 - 0 | Oct. 25, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 1 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| W | H. Mayot | 2 - 0 | Sept. 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | Walk Over | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | F. Cobolli | 0 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
All Aug. 14, 2026 results & picks →