TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Droguet (moneyline) at 2.30 in T. Droguet vs M. Berrettini (Cincinnati on 2026-08-14). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Droguet | M. Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.3% | 36.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.6% | 63.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Droguet | hard | 1785 | 95–63 | 158 |
| M. Berrettini | hard | 1798 | 72–55 | 127 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 13, 2026.
M. Berrettini leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 14, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Berrettini | 2 - 1 |
| W | M. Lajal | 2 - 0 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| W | N. Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 1 | Sept. 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Glinka | 2 - 1 | Sept. 11, 2026 |
| W | G. Brouwer | 2 - 0 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | M. Chazal | 2 - 0 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 1 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 3 - 0 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | Aug. 15, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 1 - 2 | Aug. 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
All Aug. 14, 2026 results & picks →