TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Zhang vs Y. Starodubtseva (Paris on 2026-05-13) — the market is efficient, with Y. Starodubtseva favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Zhang | Y. Starodubtseva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.2% | 71.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
14.3% | 85.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
26.4% | 73.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
23.0% | 77.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.7% | 78.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Zhang | hard | 1727 | 111–88 | 199 |
| Y. Starodubtseva | hard | 1636 | 69–53 | 122 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Y. Starodubtseva leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Paris | clay | Y. Starodubtseva | 2 - 0 |
| March 31, 2026 | Charleston | clay | Y. Starodubtseva | 2 - 0 |
| W | Y. Putintseva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | G. Knutson | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | B. Andreescu | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Joint | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | S. Stephens | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Zakharova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All May 13, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used