TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Wawrinka vs J. De Jong (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with J. De Jong favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Wawrinka | J. De Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.1% | 71.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.7% | 74.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.2% | 66.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.0% | 71.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.9% | 58.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wawrinka | hard | 1720 | 58–54 | 112 |
| J. De Jong | clay | 1752 | 139–88 | 227 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Feb. 25, 2026.
J. De Jong leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. De Jong | 3 - 1 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 1 - 3 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | May 20, 2026 |
| L | T. Skatov | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used