TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rinderknech vs J. Rodionov (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with A. Rinderknech favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rinderknech | J. Rodionov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.5% | 39.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.2% | 53.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.1% | 47.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rinderknech | hard | 1775 | 126–102 | 228 |
| J. Rodionov | hard | 1651 | 134–95 | 229 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
A. Rinderknech leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Rinderknech | 3 - 0 |
| July 29, 2023 | Zug Challenger Men | clay | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 11, 2023 | Rotterdam | hard | J. Rodionov | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 2, 2021 | Quimper 2 | hard | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | C. Tabur | 2 - 1 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 3 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Mackenzie | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. McDonald | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | P. Boscardin Dias | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used