TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Waltert vs K. Kawa (Bastad on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with S. Waltert favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Waltert | K. Kawa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.4% | 31.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.2% | 37.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.6% | 45.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
| K. Kawa | clay | 1713 | 106–66 | 172 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
K. Kawa leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 14, 2026 | Iasi | clay | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 |
| July 6, 2026 | Bastad | clay | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 |
| April 14, 2026 | Oeiras | clay | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 4, 2020 | W25 Nonthaburi 2 | hard | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 17, 2019 | Szekesfehervar | clay | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used