TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Stephens vs L. Pigato (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with L. Pigato favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Stephens | L. Pigato |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
37.7% | 62.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.4% | 74.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.8% | 61.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
48.6% | 51.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stephens | hard | 1620 | 53–68 | 121 |
| L. Pigato | clay | 1636 | 108–87 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
S. Stephens leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | S. Stephens | 2 - 0 |
| W | S. Sierra | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Zantedeschi | 0 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | A. Fita Boluda | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Tubello | 0 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. L. Carle | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Vladson | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used