TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Sierra vs S. Cirstea (French Open on 2026-05-29) — the market is efficient, with S. Cirstea favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Sierra | S. Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
32.2% | 67.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.7% | 60.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.9% | 63.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Sierra | clay | 1799 | 152–59 | 211 |
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1917 | 94–63 | 157 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 29, 2026.
S. Cirstea leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | French Open | clay | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 26, 2025 | US Open | hard | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
All May 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used