TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Sierra vs D. Yastremska (Parma on 2026-05-14) — the market is efficient, with S. Sierra favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Sierra | D. Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
75.7% | 24.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.0% | 13.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.4% | 37.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.0% | 25.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Sierra | clay | 1799 | 152–59 | 211 |
| D. Yastremska | hard | 1707 | 86–81 | 167 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Parma | clay | D. Yastremska | 2 - 0 |
| April 22, 2026 | Madrid | clay | S. Sierra | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Ito | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Dudeney | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Tomljanovic | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
All May 14, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used