TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Gaston (moneyline) at 2.10 in S. Shimabukuro vs H. Gaston (Hangzhou on 2026-09-23). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Shimabukuro | H. Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.7% | 58.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.0% | 55.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.8% | 38.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.1% | 52.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Shimabukuro | hard | 1632 | 170–126 | 296 |
| H. Gaston | hard | 1669 | 123–98 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 5, 2026.
H. Gaston leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 24, 2026 | Hangzhou | hard | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 29, 2023 | ATP US Open | hard | H. Gaston | 3 - 0 |
| L | H. Mayot | 2 - 1 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Poljicak | 0 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Wong | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | J. D. Hara Friend | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Kumstat | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Martineau | 2 - 1 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | V. Kopriva | 0 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Kouame | 0 - 1 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Glinka | 2 - 1 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Sept. 23, 2026 results & picks →