TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Under 21.5 games at 2.03 in S. Mochizuki vs J. Faria (Tokyo on 2026-09-28). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Mochizuki | J. Faria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.0% | 75.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.1% | 73.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.0% | 55.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.0% | 68.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
24.0% | 76.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Mochizuki | hard | 1552 | 126–123 | 249 |
| J. Faria | hard | 1691 | 100–58 | 158 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 10, 2026.
J. Faria leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 28, 2026 | Tokyo | hard | J. Faria | 2 - 0 |
| June 19, 2025 | Nottingham | grass | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 0 |
| May 13, 2024 | Oeiras 4 | clay | J. Faria | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Hemery | 1 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | N. Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | F. Cina | 1 - 2 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Bellucci | 2 - 0 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| W | Y. Watanuki | 2 - 1 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| L | R. Hijikata | 0 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Brunold | 0 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| L | F. Balshaw | 1 - 2 | Oct. 19, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 1 | Oct. 7, 2026 |
| L | J. Munar | 2 - 0 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
All Sept. 28, 2026 results & picks →