S. Bejlek vs M. Keys — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · · Aug. 21, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Bejlek +3.5 (game handicap) at 2.04 in S. Bejlek vs M. Keys (Cincinnati on 2026-08-21). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds S. Bejlek 3.45 · M. Keys 1.31

Bot bet

S. Bejlek +3.5 (game handicap) @ 2.04 · 0.75u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: S. Bejlek · M. Keys · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method S. Bejlek M. Keys
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
34.5% 65.5%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
45.4% 54.6%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
39.6% 60.4%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
36.3% 63.7%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
27.5% 72.5%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
S. Bejlek hard1866 44–2670
M. Keys hard1907 97–59156

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 31, 2026.

Head to head

S. Bejlek leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 21, 2026CincinnatihardS. Bejlek2 - 1

Recent form

S. Bejlek

L C. Bucsa 1 - 2 Aug. 31, 2026
L C. Gauff 0 - 2 Aug. 23, 2026
W M. Keys 2 - 1 Aug. 21, 2026
W A. Sabalenka 0 - 2 Aug. 20, 2026
W E. Alexandrova 2 - 1 Aug. 18, 2026

M. Keys

L Q. Zheng 1 - 2 Sept. 5, 2026
W A. Bondar 2 - 1 Sept. 3, 2026
W A. Korneeva 2 - 0 Sept. 1, 2026
L S. Bejlek 2 - 1 Aug. 21, 2026
W Xiy. Wang 2 - 0 Aug. 19, 2026

All Aug. 21, 2026 results & picks →

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