TennisEdge's AI bot is backing R. Sakamoto (moneyline) at 4.30 in R. Sakamoto vs F. Tiafoe (US Open on 2026-09-02). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Sakamoto | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.7% | 78.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.6% | 54.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
21.7% | 78.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.1% | 70.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Sakamoto | hard | 1714 | 88–60 | 148 |
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1962 | 138–89 | 227 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 8, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2, 2026 | US Open | hard | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 0 |
| L | S. Nam Ji | 0 - 2 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 2 - 3 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 0 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 1 - 3 | Sept. 11, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 3 - 2 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| W | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 0 - 3 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
All Sept. 2, 2026 results & picks →