TennisEdge's AI bot is backing R. Sakamoto (moneyline) at 4.30 in R. Sakamoto vs F. Tiafoe (US Open on 2026-09-02). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Sakamoto | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.7% | 78.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.6% | 54.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
21.7% | 78.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.1% | 70.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Sakamoto | hard | 1765 | 99–64 | 163 |
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1908 | 140–93 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 13, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2, 2026 | US Open | hard | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 0 |
| W | O. Milic | 2 - 0 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | K. Samrej | 2 - 0 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | R. Tokuda | 2 - 0 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | B. Harris | 0 - 0 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | Z. Zhang | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
All Sept. 2, 2026 results & picks →