TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Masarova vs M. Stoiana (Birmingham on 2026-06-05) — the market is efficient, with R. Masarova favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Masarova | M. Stoiana |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.9% | 43.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.8% | 22.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.4% | 32.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.8% | 31.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Masarova | hard | 1641 | 85–62 | 147 |
| M. Stoiana | hard | 1629 | 61–37 | 98 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
R. Masarova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 5, 2026 | Birmingham | grass | R. Masarova | 2 - 1 |
| L | V. Ryser | 1 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Monnet | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | F. Curmi | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 1 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | J. Teichmann | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Stearns | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. S. Rogers | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
All June 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used