TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Hijikata vs H. Squire (Hamburg on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with R. Hijikata favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Hijikata | H. Squire |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
23.6% | 76.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.7% | 79.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.9% | 71.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.9% | 44.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hijikata | hard | 1725 | 183–115 | 298 |
| H. Squire | clay | 1626 | 137–105 | 242 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
R. Hijikata leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. Munar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Pucinelli de Almeida | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Tabur | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 0 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | F. Roncadelli | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used