TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Kovacevic vs A. Gea (Hamburg on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with A. Kovacevic favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Kovacevic | A. Gea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.5% | 64.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.9% | 72.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.9% | 63.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kovacevic | hard | 1669 | 153–121 | 274 |
| A. Gea | clay | 1586 | 72–67 | 139 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 |
| May 17, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. Gea | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Wong | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used