TENNISEDGE.GG

I. Buse vs H. Gaston — Prediction & Analysis

Hamburg · ATP Hamburg - Final · May 17, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Buse vs H. Gaston (Hamburg on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with I. Buse favoured at 1.30.

Surface clay Odds I. Buse 1.30 · H. Gaston 3.40

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: I. Buse · H. Gaston · head-to-head record · Hamburg

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method I. Buse H. Gaston
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
67.0% 33.0%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
74.4% 25.6%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
75.7% 24.3%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
72.3% 27.7%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
72.3% 27.7%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
I. Buse clay1814 133–81214
H. Gaston hard1716 113–88201

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.

Head to head

I. Buse leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
May 17, 2026HamburgclayI. Buse2 - 0

Recent form

I. Buse

L T. M. Etcheverry 2 - 0 July 23, 2026
W K. Feldbausch 1 - 2 July 22, 2026
W V. Kopriva 1 - 2 July 20, 2026
L S. Tsitsipas 2 - 0 July 14, 2026
L J. Brooksby 3 - 0 July 1, 2026

H. Gaston

L D. Chan 1 - 2 Aug. 1, 2026
L L. van Assche 2 - 0 July 25, 2026
W T. Torres 0 - 2 July 24, 2026
W T. Droguet 2 - 0 July 22, 2026
W D. Dzumhur 0 - 0 July 21, 2026

All May 17, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used