TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Buse vs H. Gaston (Hamburg on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with I. Buse favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Buse | H. Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.0% | 33.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.4% | 25.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
75.7% | 24.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
72.3% | 27.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.3% | 27.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
I. Buse leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | I. Buse | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Chan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used