TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Dart (moneyline) at 3.00 in P. Stearns vs H. Dart (Cincinnati on 2026-08-14). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Stearns | H. Dart |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.0% | 47.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.9% | 55.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.3% | 42.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.4% | 32.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Stearns | hard | 1736 | 99–76 | 175 |
| H. Dart | hard | 1712 | 139–96 | 235 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 13, 2026.
H. Dart leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31, 2026 | US Open | hard | H. Dart | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 14, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 25, 2021 | US Open | hard | H. Dart | 2 - 1 |
| W | E. Arango | 2 - 0 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| L | H. Dart | 2 - 1 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | C. Tauson | 1 - 2 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 2 - 0 | Aug. 14, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| W | H. Watson | 1 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | K. Penickova | 1 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | J. Hazelitt | 1 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
All Aug. 14, 2026 results & picks →