TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Stearns vs D. Kasatkina (Strasbourg on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Stearns | D. Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.6% | 46.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.9% | 42.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.0% | 45.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Stearns | hard | 1745 | 97–74 | 171 |
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
D. Kasatkina leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 1, 2025 | Brisbane | hard | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 29, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| May 30, 2024 | WTA French Open | clay | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 16, 2024 | WTA Australian Open | hard | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used