TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Frech vs L. Fernandez (Strasbourg on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with L. Fernandez favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Frech | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.0% | 47.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.1% | 43.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Frech | hard | 1745 | 122–98 | 220 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1804 | 119–82 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
L. Fernandez leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used