TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Li vs E. Alexandrova (Strasbourg on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with A. Li favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Li | E. Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.2% | 38.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.2% | 41.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Li | hard | 1725 | 116–89 | 205 |
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1760 | 103–77 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
E. Alexandrova leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 1 |
| May 19, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | A. Li | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 8, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| April 2, 2025 | Charleston | clay | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 1 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tararudee | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used