TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Marcinko vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Rabat on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with J. Bouzas Maneiro favoured at 1.55.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Marcinko | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.7% | 47.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.5% | 41.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.7% | 42.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.8% | 58.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Marcinko | clay | 1727 | 89–46 | 135 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 17, 2026.
P. Marcinko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Rabat | clay | P. Marcinko | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | S. Kenin | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used