TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Kalinina vs A. Bondar (Rabat on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with A. Kalinina favoured at 1.75.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Kalinina | A. Bondar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.0% | 65.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.6% | 54.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.2% | 44.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kalinina | hard | 1699 | 83–69 | 152 |
| A. Bondar | clay | 1803 | 164–88 | 252 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Kalinina leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 3, 2026 | Toronto | hard | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 |
| May 21, 2026 | Rabat | clay | A. Kalinina | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 2, 2026 | WTA Brisbane | hard | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 1, 2023 | Adelaide | hard | A. Kalinina | 2 - 0 |
| June 27, 2022 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Kalinina | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Bondar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. L. Carle | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Clay ELO ratings are extremely close (1846 vs 1830), indicating the market is overvaluing Kalinina and providing value on Bondar at 2.16 odds.