TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Alexandrova (moneyline) in N. Osaka vs E. Alexandrova (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-25).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | E. Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.5% | 34.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Osaka | grass | 1842 | 14–8 | 22 |
| E. Alexandrova | grass | 1778 | 39–17 | 56 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 7, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Pohankova | 0 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 6, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 0 - 2 | Oct. 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 1 - 2 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| L | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 0 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| W | H. Guo | 0 - 2 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →