M. Uchijima vs H. Kinoshita — Prediction & Analysis

Vancouver · Vancouver - 1/8-finals · July 29, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Kinoshita (moneyline) at 3.20 in M. Uchijima vs H. Kinoshita (Vancouver on 2026-07-29). Result: LOST.

Surface hard Odds M. Uchijima 1.39 · H. Kinoshita 2.90

Bot bet

H. Kinoshita (moneyline) @ 3.20 · 1.5u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: M. Uchijima · H. Kinoshita · head-to-head record · Vancouver

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method M. Uchijima H. Kinoshita
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
54.0% 46.0%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
60.2% 39.8%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
44.1% 55.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
57.2% 42.8%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
67.6% 32.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
M. Uchijima hard1590 143–111254
H. Kinoshita hard1549 82–64146

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 26, 2026.

Head to head

M. Uchijima leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 29, 2026VancouverhardM. Uchijima2 - 1

Recent form

M. Uchijima

L L. Havlickova 1 - 2 Aug. 26, 2026
W P. Hercog 2 - 0 Aug. 25, 2026
L R. X. Wu 2 - 0 Aug. 19, 2026
L H. Dart 2 - 0 Aug. 12, 2026
L A. Sabalenka 2 - 0 Aug. 4, 2026

H. Kinoshita

L C. Brace 0 - 2 Sept. 13, 2026
W V. Rodriguez 2 - 1 Sept. 12, 2026
L O. Dodin 2 - 0 Sept. 3, 2026
W R. Munk Mortensen 0 - 2 Sept. 1, 2026
L D. Semenistaja 2 - 0 Aug. 25, 2026

All July 29, 2026 results & picks →

32 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →