TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Lu (moneyline) at 3.95 in M. Hontama vs J. Lu (Vancouver on 2026-07-29). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Hontama | J. Lu |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.3% | 36.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.4% | 36.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.7% | 25.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hontama | hard | 1597 | 156–125 | 281 |
| J. Lu | hard | 1480 | 159–128 | 287 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 26, 2026.
M. Hontama leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 29, 2026 | Vancouver | hard | M. Hontama | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Lazaro Garcia | 1 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Gjorcheska | 2 - 0 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| L | K. Scott | 0 - 2 | Aug. 8, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ku | 1 - 2 | Aug. 8, 2026 |
| W | E. Andreeva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | P. Cheapchandej | 0 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| L | H. Shi | 2 - 0 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | P. Cheapchandej | 0 - 2 | Aug. 27, 2026 |
| W | S. Wei | 1 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| L | A. Penickova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 7, 2026 |
All July 29, 2026 results & picks →