TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Lu (moneyline) at 3.95 in M. Hontama vs J. Lu (Vancouver on 2026-07-29). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Hontama | J. Lu |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.3% | 36.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.4% | 36.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.7% | 25.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hontama | hard | 1585 | 161–131 | 292 |
| J. Lu | hard | 1490 | 167–135 | 302 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 6, 2026.
M. Hontama leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 29, 2026 | Vancouver | hard | M. Hontama | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Linette | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kulambayeva | 2 - 1 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Joint | 0 - 2 | Oct. 25, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
All July 29, 2026 results & picks →