TennisEdge's AI bot is backing K. Nishikori (moneyline) at 1.76 in M. Trungelliti vs K. Nishikori (Cincinnati on 2026-08-12). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Trungelliti | K. Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.0% | 61.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.3% | 62.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
25.5% | 74.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.4% | 63.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.9% | 57.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Trungelliti | hard | 1590 | 51–47 | 98 |
| K. Nishikori | hard | 1707 | 61–32 | 93 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 7, 2026.
M. Trungelliti leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 13, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Trungelliti | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Ritschard | 0 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Dodig | 2 - 0 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 2 - 1 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| W | T. Pereira | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | F. Passaro | 1 - 2 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 2 | Oct. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | M. Antonius | 2 - 0 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | S. Ofner | 1 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | Aug. 13, 2026 |
All Aug. 12, 2026 results & picks →