TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Stoiana vs M. Jorge (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with M. Stoiana favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Stoiana | M. Jorge |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.4% | 44.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.8% | 48.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.3% | 21.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stoiana | hard | 1629 | 61–37 | 98 |
| M. Jorge | hard | 1479 | 83–93 | 176 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Stoiana leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Stoiana | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Stearns | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. S. Rogers | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used