TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Moeller vs L. Giustino (Monastir on 2026-11-13) — the market is efficient, with M. Moeller favoured at 1.78.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Moeller | L. Giustino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.5% | 40.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.4% | 69.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.4% | 53.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.6% | 48.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Moeller | hard | 1597 | 94–47 | 141 |
| L. Giustino | hard | 1555 | 58–68 | 126 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
| W | A. Ouakaa | 2 - 1 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Barsukov | 2 - 1 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | H. Grenier | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | G. Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 1 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | D. Blanch | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Tepmahc | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | C. A. Caniato | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | Y. Milev | 2 - 1 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | Z. Piros | 1 - 2 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
All Nov. 13, 2026 results & picks →