TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. L. Carle vs M. Timofeeva (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with M. Timofeeva favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. L. Carle | M. Timofeeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.7% | 42.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.1% | 41.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.8% | 55.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.5% | 46.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.7% | 66.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. L. Carle | clay | 1548 | 166–111 | 277 |
| M. Timofeeva | hard | 1616 | 92–61 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
M. Timofeeva leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. L. Carle | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 22, 2026 | WTA Merida | hard | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 4, 2025 | Changsha | clay | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 10, 2024 | W100 Cornellà de Llobregat | hard | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 |
| L | E. Lene | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. Niemeier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Pieri | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Sasnovich | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Li | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Haddad Maia | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used