TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Paolini (moneyline) at 2.88 in M. Kostyuk vs J. Paolini (Wimbledon on 2026-07-08). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | J. Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.6% | 64.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.9% | 32.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1904 | 118–72 | 190 |
| J. Paolini | hard | 1867 | 119–80 | 199 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 14, 2023 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 10, 2022 | Cluj-Napoca | clay | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 13, 2022 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Eala | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Montgomery | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
All July 8, 2026 results & picks →
═══ M. Kostyuk vs J. Paolini — Wimbledon QF (grass) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Book: A 1.36 / B 2.88 (implied A 67.9%) Betfair: 1.43 / 3.25
ELO: A 35.6% → strongly favors Paolini (grass-weighted)
ML: A 40.7% → favors Paolini
Sim: A 51.0% → coin flip
All three models disagree with a heavy market favorite. Value pick B, edge +16.9pts.
RECENT FORM (last 5)
Kostyuk (4-0 Wimbledon, 18-1 since mid-April):
07-06 W Krueger (1874, Strong) 6-4 6-4 DOM
07-04 W Navarro (1843, Strong) 3 sets tough
07-02 W Blinkova (1644, Avg) 3 sets w/ TB GRIND
06-30 W Podoroska (1454, Weak) 6-1 6-2 DOM
06-04 L Andreeva (2021, Elite) FO SF straight sets
Paolini (4-0 Wimbledon, patchy before):
07-06 W Eala (1892, Elite) 6-4 4-6 6-3 GRIND
07-04 W Sakkari (1659, Avg) 6-1 6-2 DOM
07-02 W Golubic (1712, Strong) 7-6 6-4 GRIND (TB)
06-30 W Montgomery (1912, Elite) 0-6 6-4 7-5 GRIND
06-23 L Maria (1753) Eastbourne opener
FATIGUE
Kostyuk: 4 matches/7d, 12 sets, 292 min, last 07-06
Paolini: 4 matches/7d (5/14d), 15 sets, 366 min, last 07-06
74-min court-time gap → Paolini side carries the heavier load. Disadvantage B.
NARRATIVE
Kostyuk TITLE: Madrid 67d ago (clay) + Rouen title — breakout spring, but ALL of it on clay.
No let-down window (last final 67d ago). Venue: both 4-0 at Wimbledon this fortnight.
Key surface read: Kostyuk's ELO/market gap is her clay breakout; on grass she needed
3 sets + TB vs Avg-tier Blinkova and 3 vs Navarro. Paolini is the proven grass-courter
(grass ELO drives the 64% B) and her Wimbledon wins are over higher-rated opposition.
MARKET CHOICE
ML B: 0.46 est − 0.347 implied (2.88) → +11pts
AH B +3.5: sim covers 62.2% − 48.1% (2.08) → +14pts
Total 21.5: sim 50.6/49.4 → nothing
Winner disagreement is the story (ELO+ML both flip the favorite) → take ML; edges within
~3pts and ML is the simpler expression of the thesis.
VERDICT: BET Paolini ML @2.88, 1.5u (win prob 0.46, edge ~11pts)
Full model consensus against the market + grass-specific qualitative confirmation.
Discounted from raw ELO (64%) for Kostyuk's live form and Paolini's heavier court time.
Risks: Kostyuk is 18-1 since April and market may simply be ahead of stale ratings;
Paolini 15 sets / 366 min in 7 days; Paolini's pre-Wimbledon season was poor.