TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Paolini (moneyline) at 2.88 in M. Kostyuk vs J. Paolini (Wimbledon on 2026-07-08). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | J. Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.6% | 64.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.9% | 32.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | grass | 1739 | 16–15 | 31 |
| J. Paolini | grass | 1829 | 17–12 | 29 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 9, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 14, 2023 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 10, 2022 | Cluj-Napoca | clay | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 13, 2022 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Gauff | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 2 - 1 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 2 - 0 | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 2 - 0 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Kartal | 0 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
All July 8, 2026 results & picks →