TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah (Paris on 2026-05-14) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.02.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.4% | 26.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.8% | 39.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.9% | 32.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
90.0% | 10.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
| T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah | clay | 1528 | 76–49 | 125 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
M. Keys leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Paris | clay | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Zhu | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Y. Lee | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 0 - 2 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | Y. Lizarazo | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
All May 14, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used