TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs A. Zakharova (Paris on 2026-05-15) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | A. Zakharova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
72.5% | 27.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
86.1% | 13.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
79.5% | 20.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
| A. Zakharova | hard | 1771 | 168–89 | 257 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
M. Keys leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Paris | clay | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| June 11, 2025 | London | grass | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | H. Vandewinkel | 0 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 15, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used