TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Charaeva vs A. Sasnovich (Paris on 2026-05-15) — the market is efficient, with A. Sasnovich favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Charaeva | A. Sasnovich |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.0% | 42.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.2% | 22.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
46.2% | 53.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Charaeva | hard | 1610 | 75–54 | 129 |
| A. Sasnovich | hard | 1737 | 89–80 | 169 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 20, 2026.
A. Charaeva leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Paris | clay | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 |
| April 20, 2026 | Madrid | clay | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Kraus | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Sorribes Tormo | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | B. Andreescu | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | S. Hunter | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
All May 15, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used